{"id":3900,"date":"2022-05-05T10:14:51","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T10:14:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.editage.com\/insights\/climate-change-can-cause-over-15000-virus-transmission-cases-among-mammals\/"},"modified":"2025-01-15T06:25:56","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T06:25:56","slug":"climate-change-can-cause-over-15000-virus-transmission-cases-among-mammals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.editage.com\/insights\/climate-change-can-cause-over-15000-virus-transmission-cases-among-mammals","title":{"rendered":"Climate change can cause over 15,000 virus transmission cases among mammals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">In a recent study published in <i>Nature<\/i><sup>1<\/sup>, researchers caution that over the next 50 years, climate and land use change will lead to new encounters between mammals, increasing the risk of viruses jumping between species. According to the authors of the study, it could result in over 15,000 new cases of virus transmission among mammals. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">Currently, there are around 10,000 viruses \u201ccirculating silently\u201d among wild species away from human contact. As soaring temperatures will force such species to look for cooler areas to inhabit, many mammals will encounter each other for the first time creating new opportunities for virus transmission.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">In a five-year long study, Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University, and his colleagues modelled the movements of 3,139 mammal species (most relevant to human health) under a range of climate change scenarios. Kate Jones from University College London, who is involved in modelling interactions between ecosystems and human health, labels this study as \u201ca critical first step in understanding the future risk of climate and land-use change on the next pandemic\u201d<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">Models suggest that if the earth warms by 2 \u00b0C, certain areas, termed as \u201cspillover hotspots\u201d<sup>3<\/sup>, will have the highest instances of virus transmissions. This includes regions rich in biodiversity and high population density in Asia and Africa like India, eastern China, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Sahel, the Ethiopian Highlands and the Rift Valley, as well as some densely populated European zones<sup>4<\/sup>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">While Ignacio Morales-Castilla, a global-change ecologist at the University of Alcal\u00e1, Spain believes the modelling and simulations of the study are \u201ctechnically impeccable,\u201d he also points out at some of the limitations of such forecasting exercises. For instance, factors such as the species\u2019 adaptability to rising temperature or their ability (or inability) to physically cross barriers are hard to predict. On the other hand, flying mammals like bats are known to accumulate viruses and are less likely to be affected by physical barriers. &nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">Similarly, such transmission from wild mammals to humans is more multifaceted and involves several other factors. According to Jones, \u201cPredicting the risk of viral jumps from mammals into humans is more tricky, as these spillovers take place in a complex ecological and human socio-economic environment\u201d. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 8pt\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\">Elements that are more controllable like rising costs of healthcare need to be urgently discussed to avoid future implications of such spillovers. Researchers of the study have called on governments to not only improve disease surveillance but also boost healthcare infrastructure to beat such a threat.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size:11.0pt\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,sans-serif\">Colin Carlson, a co-author of the paper urges, \u201cWe have to acknowledge that climate change is going to be the biggest upstream driver of disease emergence, and we have to build health systems that are ready for that.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size:11.0pt\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\"><span style=\"line-height:107%\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,sans-serif\">References<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<div>\n<div id=\"edn1\">\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;\"><sup><span style=\"font-size: 13.3333px;\">1<\/span><\/sup><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\">Carlson, C.J., Albery, G.F., Merow, C. et al. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature (28 April, 2022). <span class=\"MsoHyperlink\" style=\"color:#0563c1\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-022-04788-w\" style=\"color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-022-04788-w<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\"><span style=\"font-size:10pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\"><sup><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">2,3 <\/span><\/sup><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">Gilbert, N., Climate change will force new animal encounters \u2014 and boost viral outbreaks. Nature (<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">28 April, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">2022).<\/span> <span class=\"MsoHyperlink\" style=\"color:#0563c1\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\"><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-022-01198-w\" style=\"color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-022-01198-w<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\"><span style=\"font-size:10pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Calibri,sans-serif\"><sup><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">4 <\/span><\/sup><span style=\"font-size:11.0pt\">AFP, Climate change increases risk of new viruses emerging: Research. Aljazeera (28 April, 2022). <span class=\"MsoHyperlink\" style=\"color:#0563c1\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/4\/28\/climate-change-increasing-risk-of-new-viruses-emerging-research\" style=\"color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline\">https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/4\/28\/climate-change-increasing-risk-of-new-viruses-emerging-research<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoEndnoteText\" style=\"margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent study published in Nature1, researchers caution that over the next 50 years, climate and land use change will lead to new encounters between mammals, increasing the risk of viruses jumping between species. According to the authors of the study, it could result in over 15,000 new cases of virus transmission among mammals. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":717,"featured_media":33313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2408],"tags":[2482],"new_categories":[],"new_tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-3900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-news","tag-science-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Climate change can cause over 15,000 virus transmission cases among mammals | Editage Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In a recent study published in Nature, researchers caution that over the next 50 years, climate and land use change will lead to new encounters between mammals, increasing the risk of viruses jumping between species. 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